Poker Downswings: Does Confidence Really Matter?

Just the other day “Cinch” wrote a very compelling article on poker downswings. The argument was strong and I really enjoyed reading it. Let’s start off with what I really like about the article “Cinch” wrote. Instead of bemoaning his weak mental game during poker downswings, “Cinch” talks about being accountable and getting back to the basics. This is a great approach to take and is a bit like hitting the reset button for your computer when it freezes up. Too often players allow running good or bad to determine how they are playing. Getting back to the fundamentals can really help.

In the beginning of the article “Cinch” argues that confidence is everything in poker and in sport as well. He draws an analogy to pro soccer strikers who go on scoring “streaks” but then struggle mightily at times. There are many parallels that can be drawn between sports and poker. Let’s examine some of the similarities.

1) Skill plays a part in determining the outcome (to varying degrees depending on the sport).

2) Confidence is commonly thought to be a “Key” component in success

3) Lady luck also plays an important role in determining outcomes :). Especially, when teams or individuals are evenly matched

So the real question we should be asking is,

1) Is the striker that scores 10 goals in 10 games playing better than the striker that has 6 goals in 10?

The answer to this question is possibly, but not necessarily. Maybe the striker who has 10 goals in 10 games scored on all 10 of his opportunities and never hit the post once. Also, the goalie may have botched a couple of opportunities to make great saves. Conversely the striker who scored fewer goals may have hit 10 posts and been the victim of some amazing saves. The striker can’t prevent a goalie from making an incredible save, but it does affect his numbers. We need to think about goal scoring in terms of the range of all possible outcomes. For example a high quality player may score half the time on a breakaway. So the expected value of one breakaway would be ½ of a goal. If this player is able to get four breakaways per game they will score a lot of goals. Getting these opportunities should be the focus of the player rather than fixating on having hit three posts consecutively.

2) What is the psychological effect of running good in terms of goal scoring? Does it make you work harder for your opportunities and practice more? If so then good play will tend to lead to even better play. However, there is another possibility. Maybe running good in sports or in poker causes you to slack off a bit? This is a completely natural human response. If this is the case then running good may actually cause bad habits to creep into your game. Be vigilant for this!

In scientific experiments an important part of the process is identifying what is the dependent variable and what is the independent variable? At this point I am going to ask you is confidence the dependent or independent variable?

For me confidence is the dependent variable. It comes and goes depending on how I am running. However, In my experience in both poker and sports confidence has relatively little affect on how I actually play. I have made some really bad plays when I was incredibly confident and many good plays when I had little confidence.

There is no question that confidence comes with success. So in order to turn yourself into a confident player you don’t need to play jedi mind tricks on yourself, but you need to become a better player. How can you do this?

Lets start with a story. My senior year at Columbia University the tennis team was competing for the Ivy League Title. I struggled mightily early in the season and was playing so poorly that the coaches were considering pulling me from the singles lineup. However, when you read this article you can see the confidence had returned and I finished 6-1 in the Ivy League (7-1 if you include the playoff we won). So the real question is where did the confidence come from?

1) Hard Work. Early in the season I had numerous distractions and was not able to fully commit to winning tennis matches. However, I also knew that with some hard work and smarts I could turn it around.

I almost didn’t even want to mention hard work though because I assume that most people work hard. I know lots of people in life that work hard, but working hard isn’t good enough if you want to achieve stellar results. You also need to work smart! For me the single biggest breakthrough was working on understanding the process required to compete at my highest level. I won’t bore you with what that process was on the tennis court, but I will tell you some of the components that lead to success at the poker tables.

By now I think most of us will agree that confidence is primarily a dependent variable that is based on our success at the tables. As such we should not waste our mental energy thinking about it. The only reason that we need to think about confidence is if the lack of confidence is disrupting our play. Dave talked at length about the wicked variance that comes with poker. I know from experience that the swings are mind blowing. However, there is truly nothing that you can do about losing AA all in preflop 10 times in a row to 22. Because poker is a game of chance we can’t be confident in the result. There is no way of knowing how a card will roll of the deck unless you are cheating. However, what you can work with is the process. The more that you refine the process and improve as a player the better your results will become and the more confident you will be.

Several critical factors in the process of being successful at poker are….

1) Do not take a results based approach to poker hand analysis. Your biggest mistakes may be in missed opportunities or hands that you win but paid too much for a draw etc. Also, just because a bluff worked doesn’t make it a good one, and just because it failed doesn’t make it bad. Poker hand analysis should be independent of results.

2) Avoid distractions while playing (even if you are crushing the tables and think you can get away with it). Tons of players are guilty of not being focused while playing (myself included) and this can be very costly

3) Spend a consistent amount of time working on your game regardless of how you are running

4) Identify bad habits such as (tilt late in sessions, uncertainty early in sessions, struggling after vacation, etc) and work on solutions

5) If your red line (non-showdown winnings) is sloping massively downward and you are struggling to win you probably don’t have a “confidence” problem but a lack of smart/controlled aggression in your game. I talk about red line and several other critical factors that are essential for winning in my book “Exploitive No Limit Holdem”.

Downswings will always be frustrating. However, our job is to work on maintaining our level of play even when our confidence struggles. As “Cinch” mentions in his article players commonly reduce their aggression when they are running bad. This is not the correct approach to take, and “Cinch” correctly points out several example of ‘losers tilt’. His discussion of writing down “standard ranges” is also solid.

There are a couple of of points made at the end of the article on “Game Selection” that I want to offer my opinion on. IMO there should generally be no need to play shorter sessions when you are losing (assuming that you are playing well of course). The key here is I don’t think that losing and playing poorly have to be synonymous. Some of my best sessions are when I lose money. Also, some of my worst sessions are when I win. I agree that you should play a shorter session if you are playing poorly or have a logical reason to believe you will start to play poorly, otherwise I say keep going even if you are in a downswing. You need to know yourself and what your limits and capabilities are. I have cut short many winning sessions because I felt like I was slightly “off” that day. Again, don’t let results be your guide but focus on the process.

Same thing goes for playing lower limits. There is no need to drop limits if you are playing well and focusing on the process of winning (assuming that you are properly bankrolled). You really shouldn’t be playing at games where you aren’t properly rolled, and therefore going down stakes when you are “running bad” should not be necessary. All that going down stakes does is lower your win rate and lower your variance. Clearly if you are playing with dread or fear that is not a good thing. Those issues should be addressed when studying and should be clear from your mind when you sit down to play poker.

Strikers will go on incredible goal scoring streaks and poker players will have wild upswings and downswings. The key is to understand all of the small components that lead to success and stay disciplined about executing those. Confidence as a critical component of success is often misunderstood and misused in poker and in sport. Confidence is the bi product of hard/smart work, success, and working on a process to consistently perform at a high level. I think that confidence is routinely used as this catch all “euphemism” for all of the ingredients that go into success. Unfortunately, that makes it more challenging for players trying to learn and improve. If we are able to break out the fundamental building blocks that create confidence and success it will be easier to improve and help your mental game. One small step at a time is the way to improve your “confidence” and your winrate! I would love to hear your thoughts…

by Paul Ratchford (ThePokerCapitalist)

 

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