Winning Poker Strategies

What are some winning poker strategies? A common goal of poker players is the idea of having an unexploitable range. This theory is sound, but sometimes its important to remember that it is ok to be exploitable. Just remember that if the Villain is not exploiting you then you are effectively unexploitable to them. We don’t want to pass up on opportunities to exploit our opponents just because doing so might make us exploitable against a skilled Villain. Here are a couple of examples that illustrate what I am talking about.

1) 3-betting Exploitively

We are 3-betting a really high % of the time like 20% because our opponent folds 90% of hands to 3-bets. Doing so makes us exploitable, but also makes us a lot of money. It doesn’t matter if we are exploitable if our opponent is not exploiting you! Make sure you don’t level yourself against this kind of opponent and think that maybe they are spazz 4betting against you.

How do we find and exploit a Villains leak? In the scenario above it was very easy, but often that is not the case. In more complex cases we need a good grasp of what an unexploitable range looks like, and then if the Villain is deviating too far from that we know they have a leak. It is important to realize that some players may not have a significant leak until they begin to tilt. This is why game flow and psychology are still a very important part of the game. I think many players do not focus enough on game flow and psychology in determining their Villains ranges. Players that understand game flow and psychology better tend to be the higher stakes players. Ultimately, to be successful at any level we should have a strong understanding of how to construct an unexploitable range (to combat/break even vrs highly skilled regs), and have a good strategy for exploiting the leaks of weaker opponents.

With time and experience we can become experts at anticipating how a poker player will react in a variety of different situations.

A skilled Villain raises 50% of buttons (663 combos) and enters a min raise on the button. You proceed to 3bet him to 7 BB from the Small Blind and he folds. Normally he folds to 3-Bets 66% of the time. The very next hand he raises the cut-off (Villain is first in from the cutoff PFR=25%=331 combos) to 3BB and you 3-Bet from the button to 9BB. How frequently do you expect him to fold to your 3bet?

1. In this kind of scenario most players will fold more often vrs your 3bet(something around 80% IMO). They are afraid of being seen as spazzing out and therefore they will be 4betting almost exclusively for value. Also, the Villain will be hesitant to take a flop from oop because they are reluctant to bluff post flop (fear of being perceived as spazzing). In my experience many Villain’s defend only a range of hands that looks something like this ( TT+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+)=66 Combos. Unfortunately, if they are opening 331 combos that leaves them folding (1-(66/331))*100%=80%. Even if they aren’t quite this nitty most Villain’s inclination will be to fold too much in this scenario.

2) Understanding 4bets

A skilled villain raises the button 50% (.5*1326=663 Combos) of the time to steal the blinds when he is first in the pot. The first time he raises the button you 3-Bet from the small blind and he folds. 20 hands later a similar scenario develops where he is first in on the button and raises. Again you 3-Bet from the SB. When he 4-Bets do you perceive his range as wider or tighter? Lets assume he generally 4-Bets 20% of his raising range 663/5=132 Combos of hands.

1. Generally, in this scenario I would expect him to 4bet wider than this (possibly 160 combos). Most villains that open that wide off the button do not like to fold repeatedly vrs 3-Bets. Unlike our previous scenario where we 3-Bet the Villain back to back here there was a gap between the actions. This gap makes a significant difference in the psychology of the Villain. In my experience they are not as afraid of being perceived as spazzing. Because they are not afraid of being perceived as spazzing, and given the likely fact they remember your previous 3bet this will tend to make them stickier. Many Villains will 4bet too much in this spot and may be very exploitable to a 5bet jam. If they started with 663 combos and like to polarize their 4-Bets they will be in trouble. Assuming a value range composed of AK, AKs, AA, KK, QQ, JJ=40 combos they will be folding 75% of the time to 5bets (1-(120/160))*100%=75%. A little basic math will tell you with 100 BB stacks the Villain’s is exploitable. Either the Villain needs to 4bet less or the Villain needs to add more value hands into his range.

Against opponents that fold to a lot of 3-Bets we should be 3-Betting a ton. Against opponents that 4Bet a ton of hands, and fold to 5Bets we should be 5Betting small pockets, KQs, AXs etc. Against opponents that 4-Bet a ton of hands, and don’t fold to 5-Bets we can weigh our 3bets heavily in the direction of value hands. What I am trying to illustrate is the importance of being versatile and adjusting in real time to our opponents. Reading how our opponents react and shift the number of combos in their range is what will ultimately make you a big winner in this game.

One little trick to keep in mind is generally if you are significant off the 60-65% level for fold to 3bet, 4bet or 5bet you probably have a leak. When you are structuring your ranges start with 1326 and figure out how you can fold no more than 60-65% versus 3-Bets, 4-Bets, and 5-Bets. Whether or not your opponents recognize your weaknesses is an entirely different question. If your opponents don’t have a good sample on you it could be difficult for them to detect leaks. When studying spend some time thinking about how game flow will lead your opponent to shift their ranges.

Remember, playing exploitively is the key to success in this game. Good luck at the tables and be sure to check out my book Exploitive No Limit Holdem.

-Paul

P.S. Just an update for all the long time blog followers. I’m currently pursuing an opportunity with a startup so I haven’t been playing or writing lately. Anyhow, I had an hour or two and as always I enjoy talking poker strategy so I thought I would write this. I’ll try to post more frequently when possible, I hope you got something out of this. Good luck at the tables.